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Prison population projections (NS)

The release (generally annual) gives the projected monthly prison population in England and Wales up to 2015. Sub-population (such as gender) estimates are presented alongside the effects of legislation, sentencing activity, and so on relevant to the prison population.

The publication is released by the Ministry of Justice and produced in accordance with arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

Revisions to prison projections

A major development of the long-term modelling of the prison projections is being undetaken in 2009 and 2010. The underlying data used in the model will be completely refreshed and the framework of the model will be formalised as Systems Dynamics.

Until this process is complete, updates will be of the short-term model; the long-term model will not be updated from the results published in 2008. Projections updated on this basis were published on 28 August 2009.

If you have any comments on the methods used for prison projections, please contact us: email

2009-2015

• Prison population projections 2009-2015 (PDF 0.21mb 26 pages)
• Prison population projections 2009-2015 statistical tables (Excel 0.04mb 3 pages)
  Published on 28 August 2009

2008-2015

• Prison population projections 2008-2015 (PDF 0.32mb 28 pages)
• Prison population projections 2008-2015 (Excel 0.02mb 3 pages)
  Published on 18 September 2008

The bulletin is produced and handled by the ministry's analytical professionals and production staff. Pre-release access of up to 24 hours to the 2009-2015 projections was granted to the following persons:

Ministry of Justice: Secretary of State; Ministers of State; Director General, Criminal Justice; Deputy Permanent Secretary and Director General Corporate Performance; Director of Offender Management Strategy; Director of Research and Analysis; Deputy Director Supply and Demand Strategy; Head of Sentencing Policy and Penalties Unit; Director General, NOMS; Chief Operating Officer, NOMS; Head of Strategy and Programme Development, NOMS; Deputy Director for Population Management, NOMS; Head of Prison Population Strategy Group, NOMS and relevant special advisers and press officers.

Her Majesty’s Treasury: Head of Home and Legal Team.

No 10: Private Secretary.